Why we need climate progress every week

 

Charlene Watson and Casey Cronin

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Global leaders must use the momentum from year-round climate talks to commit to finance and set up countries for success. COP cannot be the only window for committed climate action.

Climate negotiations year-round are paramount to advance national climate action, secure global financing, and anticipate challenges before the main stage in November. While the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) often dominates discussions on climate progress, making headway relies on all that happens in the 12 months prior.

International cooperation around the climate emergency must go beyond the climate community and its meetings. Climate finance needs to be a priority for other global forums such as the G20, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization.

A gap in financing is a gap in implementation, especially for developing economies and their populations who remain some of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A failure to address climate change, both in mitigation and adaptation, is a failure for all. Our climate vulnerabilities are as interconnected as our vulnerabilities to other global crises.

Philanthropy can play a crucial role in directing finance to support innovative solutions, drive systemic change, and amplify the voices of those most affected by a changing climate. By quickly and efficiently mobilizing capital, funders can bridge critical funding gaps for impactful projects around the world. But philanthropy cannot do it alone.

We are approaching an important year for global efforts to successfully cut emissions and adapt to adverse climate change impacts. In 2025, governments from around the world will submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These NDCs are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and outline each country’s policies, actions, and measures to mitigate – and adapt – to a changing climate for the next five years.

These commitments are expected to be updated and strengthened every five years, with international support and coordination allowing for increased action and implementation. In short, each subsequent NDC should be more ambitious than the previous.

With many developing countries experiencing rapid population and economic growth, our collective global success in managing the impacts of climate change will be pushed out of reach unless they receive international support for deep and rapid transitions to low-emission, climate-resilient development pathways.

The current round of NDCs through 2030 puts the world on a trajectory to 2.5 º C of warming. Yet, global emissions must plummet by at least 43 percent from 2019 levels within that same time frame to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 º C target. Current commitments suggest only an 8 percent reduction in emissions when we need more than five times that amount.

The critical question then becomes, how can we expect countries to write more ambitious NDCs through 2035?

For one, the Global Stocktake is a data-driven component of the Paris Agreement that should be used as a guiding light to action across political contexts.

The Global Stocktake points to finance as a key enabler of such aspirations, but a financing gap for climate action is evident. Current estimates put our global total investments in climate action at just over $1 trillion per year, while the financing and investment needs are expected to extend to over $10 trillion per year from 2031 to 2050.

The finance gap is particularly evident in many developing countries that, in the wake of the pandemic and ongoing energy and food crises, are facing high costs of borrowing. These countries also face mounting public debt that constrains health and education spending, let alone spending on climate change mitigation or adaptation. Despite well-tested solar power technologies, for example, the cost of capital for solar photovoltaic projects to scale in Egypt, South Africa or Argentina is more than twice as high as in Germany, Australia, and Sweden.

Developed countries that produced over 90 percent of historical emissions between 1850 and 2015 have both a moral and legal obligation to support developing countries in responding to climate change. However, the level and pace of change that NDCs propose need more than scaling provisions and mobilizing international public finance, key for countries that have contributed the least to climate change and yet face the biggest environmental impacts and barriers to access finance.

NDCs are outlining deep and disruptive transformations across all sectors concurrently, from energy to transportation to land use. Climate-resilient and low-emission futures will also depend on transforming the rules, regulations, and institutions that have a say in how finance flows to ensure they promote climate action – not work against it.

How much more ambitious can we expect countries’ commitments through 2035 to be if there remain questions about funding their climate plans through 2030?

International cooperation around financing must happen both inside and outside of the annual multilateral negotiations such as COP, Bonn, and other global meetings. The breadth and diversity of discussions required to adequately shift economic sectors and their financing cannot happen in a mere two weeks.

The Bonn climate talks offer global leaders a wealth of opportunities to step up and make meaningful progress on climate finance. Such measurable action can set up COP29 for success to ensure current and future NDCs are ambitious and achievable.

While actions at COP29 will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of countries’ emissions reduction goals, progress cannot be confined to a single event or moment in time. We need unprecedented levels of international cooperation and to see this collective spirit across other global and diplomatic events.

Climate change doesn’t only impact us for two weeks a year. We need sustained cooperation to realistically reach $10 trillion a year in financing for climate action to transform our global systems.

Only year-round action can ensure that we not only enable a sustainable transition, but also pave the road for an equitable and habitable future.

 

Casey Cronin is the Senior Director of Global Intelligence at ClimateWorks Foundation. Casey ensures alignment across programs in efforts related to international policy and the UNFCCC, especially in areas tracking progress towards global climate goals.

Charlene Watson is a Senior Research Associate with ODI. Her work primarily focuses on the complexities associated with channeling and programming climate finance effectively and how all finance flows can be made consistency with climate objectives.​​


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